Postseason Preview: Toronto Maple Leafs vs Welland Jackfish - 2023 Semifinal Series

To be the best, you've got to beat the best.

That's the task that stands before the Toronto Maple Leafs in their semifinal series against the Welland Jackfish.

The Jackfish were the IBL's top regular season team in 2023.  Their 31-11 record placed them 9 1/2 games ahead of the Leafs.

On top of that, the Jackfish swept the season series, beating the Leafs six times this summer.

It's a considerable task ahead.  The Leafs have momentum coming out of their quarterfinal clinching win.  Let's take a closer look at the numbers between these two clubs.

AT THE PLATE

Gregory Carrington 

This semifinal could be a series of slugfests.

The Leafs and Jackfish are two high-scoring clubs, and each one has its own style for churning out the runs.  

If the Leafs aren't hitting bombs, they are drawing walks.  This reflects the approaches of highly disciplined batters like Jordan Castaldo, Justin Marra and Johnathan Solazzo, who racked up the walks when they weren't doing home run trots.

Meanwhile, the Jackfish are like a production line, crafting run-scoring rallies from a steady stream of hits and stolen bases.

KEY STAT: The Leafs led the IBL in On-Base Percentage.  You can't score runs unless you put men on base, and the Leafs were best in the league at doing so.

ON THE MOUND

Wilgenis Alvarado

This semifinal could be a series of pitchers' duels.

Game 1 starter Wilgenis Alvarado led the league in ERA this season. 

Meanwhile, the Jackfish led the league in team ERA this season.  They hold the edge over the Leafs in all of the key categories charted below.

The Jackfish's season sweep came about through some late-inning collapses by Leafs pitching.  The Leafs enter the postseason with a tighter, more organized bullpen.  In four games of the quarterfinals, late-inning pitching has been solid.  

So far, Leafs pitchers have shaved over three runs off their regular season ERA total, so that bodes well.

KEY STAT: eight.  That's the number of scoreless innings that Wilgenis Alvarado pitched in July, during his most recent start at Welland Stadium.

THE HISTORY

The Leafs vanquished Welland in the semifinals a year ago.

This semifinal series is a rematch from last year.

In 2022, the Leafs squished the Fish, beating them 3-1.  The core of last year's Leafs team is virtually unchanged.  They've done it before, can they do it again?

It starts tonight, 6:05 pm at Welland Stadium, and Game 2 will be Sunday at Christie Pits.  We will find out very soon if history will repeat itself.  Let's go boys!

SEMIFINAL SERIES SCHEDULE (best 3 out of 5)

Game 1

Saturday, September 2 - Toronto at Welland - 6:05 pm

Toronto starter: Wilgenis Alvarado

Game 2

Sunday, September 3 - Welland at Toronto - 2:00 pm

Toronto starter: Daniel Procopio

Game 3 

Monday, September 4 - Toronto at Welland - 4:05 pm 

Toronto starter: TBA

Game 4 (if necessary)

Wednesday, September 6 - Welland at Toronto - 7:30 pm

Toronto starter: TBA

Game 5 (if necessary) 

Thursday, September 7 - Toronto at Welland - 7:35 pm 

Toronto starter: TBA