Postseason Preview: Toronto Maple Leafs vs Guelph Royals - 2023 Quarterfinal Series

Low fives and high expectations: the Maple Leafs enter the postseason wanting nothing short of a championship.

Summer is winding down, and Christie Pits is about to heat up.

One of the deepest, strongest, saaviest Toronto Maple Leafs teams in recent memory begins the quest for postseason glory.

They will face the Guelph Royals, who put on a late-season surge to finish 2 1/2 games behind Toronto.  Their best-of-five quarterfinal series begins tonight.

Leafs fans were treated to a season of ups and downs as their club finished with a winning record, only just, as usual.  The season series between the Leafs and Royals was split three wins apiece, the home team winning each contest.

These are two fairly evenly matched clubs, but Toronto has to go in with high expectations.  The long-standing core of this team has won blowouts, comebacks, upsets, MVP awards, Rookie of the Year awards, and playoff series -- pretty much everything except the Dominico Cup.  Joined by newcomers who added depth all over the field, this team now looks to win that elusive championship.  It's time for max effort.

What do the stats say?

AT THE PLATE

Johnathan Solazzo

The Maple Leafs live by the bat and die by the bat.  This bodes well, as they edge the Royals in most offensive categories.

The Leafs' regular season stats were dominated by Johnathan Solazzo, Jordan Castaldo, Justin Marra, Dan Marra and Jose Vinicio.  These five horsemen churned the bases, racking up hits, stolen bases and runs aplenty.  

As always, the home run power is there and ready.  Toronto hit the second-most home runs in the league, while Guelph hit the second-fewest.

KEY STAT: Runs Scored. Over the course of the regular season, Toronto scored 101 more runs than Guelph.  In head-to-head games, Toronto won when they scored seven or more runs, and lost when they scored four or fewer.  It's basic math, but there's the rub.  The more often Castaldo and company round the bases, the better their odds of victory.  If the bats go cold, Guelph could sneak past.

ON THE MOUND

Wilgenis Alvarado

Give this man an extension.  For the first time in living memory, a Toronto Maple Leafs pitcher led the league in ERA.  Led the league!  Out of Christie Pits!

Wilgenis Alvarado, name your price.  The Venezuelan import was part of a rotation that kept the Leafs in virtually every game this season.  Daniel Procopio and Sam Greene had strong seasons and should figure prominently in this series.

The bullpen is deep, finally like really deep.  If any of the starters falter, manager Rob Butler will be able to signal to a full arsenal of arms stockpiled down the left field line.

Late in the season, Guelph welcomed the return of their ace, Claudio Custodio.  If the Leafs get the better of him, they stand a good chance to win this series.

KEY STAT: Home Runs Allowed.  This number reflects the reality of life at Christie Pits.  Toronto pitchers surrendered 50 longballs this year, second-most in the IBL.  Meanwhile, Guelph's 28 home runs allowed was second-least.  The theme continues: the more times the Leafs trot around the bases, the higher their likelihood of advancing to the next round.  If they are kept in the yard, life could become much more difficult.
 

THE HISTORY

Zach Sloan + Marek Deska = A Share of IBL History

Hard to forget the last time these two clubs played a postseason game.

In 2018, the Maple Leafs won a series-deciding game on the shoulders of Zach Sloan and Marek Deska, who pitched a combined no-hitter.

Game 5 of that quarterfinal series unfolded on an August evening at Christie Pits.  Even though they failed to record a hit, the Royals scored two runs amid a chaos of walks and wild pitches.  The Leafs immediately retook the lead that same inning, and Deska steered the Leafs to victory over the final three innings.

Seven Leafs who were on the field that night remain on the roster as the 2023 postseason gets under way.

It starts tonight, 7:30 at Christie Pits.  Bring your beverages and your outside voices.  Let's go boys!

QUARTERFINAL SERIES SCHEDULE (best 3 out of 5)

Game 1

Thursday, August 24 - Guelph at Toronto - 7:30 pm

Toronto starter: Wilgenis Alvarado

Game 2

Saturday, August 26 - Toronto at Guelph - 7:30 pm

Toronto starter: TBA

Game 3 

Sunday, August 27 - Guelph at Toronto - 2:00 pm 

Toronto starter: Daniel Procopio

Game 4 (if necessary)

Tuesday, August 29 - Toronto at Guelph - 7:30 pm

Toronto starter: TBA

Game 5 (if necessary) 

Wednesday, August 30 - Guelph at Toronto - 7:30 pm 

Toronto starter: TBA